If adopted, a federal requirement that Medicaid beneficiaries in expansion states work at least 80 hours a month to retain their eligibility for Medicaid could result in five million people losing their Medicaid coverage, according to a new analysis.

And if that requirement were to be expanded to all Medicaid beneficiaries, that number could rise to as many as 30 million people.

The analysis, included in a report released by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Urban Institute, concluded that:

  • Between 4.6 and 5.2 million adults living in states that expanded Medicaid would lose Medicaid coverage next year under work requirements.
  • More than nine in 10 adults with Medicaid expansion coverage already work, are looking for a job, attend school, are caring for family members, are in fair or poor health, or reported having a disability.
  • If work requirements are not explicitly limited to the Medicaid expansion population, researchers say more than 30 million adults ages 19 to 55 could be subject to them, and coverage losses would be substantially higher.

The loss of coverage for so many people would have significant implications not only for the individuals who lose their insurance but also for the health care providers paid for the Medicaid services they provide, potentially eliminating billions of dollars in Medicaid revenue.

Learn more about the potential implications of a work-related change in Medicaid eligibility from the report “Assessing Potential Coverage Losses among Medicaid Expansion Adults under a Federal Medicaid Work Requirement.”